NUE Stock Analysis Report for Bernini Capital
Introduction & Overview
This analysis focuses on Nucor Corporation (NUE), a key player within the Steel industry (Basic Materials sector). On 2025-05-15, NUE’s shares were valued at $115.46, reflecting a conflicted technical stance, caught between major moving averages. Being above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA suggests potential short-term strength conflicting with the longer-term trend, often requiring further confirmation. Its market capitalization stands near $26.80 B, NUE represents a significant player in its field.
This Bernini Capital assessment provides a comprehensive evaluation of Nucor Corporation (NUE) from a long-term, value-oriented perspective. We meticulously analyze its fundamental strength, including financial health (debt, liquidity), profitability trends (margins, ROE), cash flow generation (see Financial Health/Efficiency), and valuation attractiveness relative to peers and intrinsic estimates. Dividend sustainability (see Dividends section) is also a key consideration.
Company Snapshot
Core activities involve: Nucor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. The company operates in three segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. The Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling structural steel products; and bar steel products,…
Key Metrics Summary
Key metrics provide context for NUE’s current valuation. The price ($115.46) relative to its medium-term (SMA50: $114.65 – Above SMA 50) and long-term (SMA200: $128.31 – Below SMA 200) trends is a starting point. Volatility is 27.4%. Although the 1-year forecast targets $141.11, enduring investment choices depend more significantly on core fundamentals (like financial stability and earnings power) and if the price represents good value compared to its estimated worth.
Fundamental Business Profile
Core Operations & Competitive Landscape
Assessing the company’s role within its industry, its operational scale, and its long-term strategy provides a foundation for fundamental valuation. Nucor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. The company operates in three segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. The Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling structural steel products; and bar steel products, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing and merchant bars, and engineered special bar quality products. It also engages in the steel trading and rebar distribution businesses. This segment sells its products to steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The Steel Products segment offers steel joists and joist girders, steel decks, and galvanized torque tubes for used in solar arrays, hollow structural section steel tubing, electrical conduit, fabricated concrete reinforcing steel, cold finished steel, steel fasteners, steel grating and expanded metal, wire and wire mesh, metal building systems, insulated metal panels, steel racking, overhead doors, and utility towers and structures for communications and energy transmission. This segment is also involved in the piling distribution business. The Raw Materials segment produces direct reduced iron (DRI); brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, hot briquetted iron, and DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal; and engages in the natural gas production and industrial gas business. This segment sells its ferrous scrap to electric arc furnace steel mills and foundries for manufacturing process; and nonferrous scrap metal to aluminum can producers, secondary aluminum smelters, steel mills and other processors, and consumers of various nonferrous metals. Nucor Corporation was founded in 1905 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Financial Health Assessment
Assessing financial resilience is paramount for long-term investment. We focus on sustainable profitability (ROE: 7.40%), prudent capital structure (Debt/Equity: 37.32x), and robust liquidity (Current Ratio: 2.52x, Quick Ratio: 1.39x). Consistent positive Operating Cash Flow ($3.88 B) is a non-negotiable sign of a healthy business capable of weathering cycles and returning value. Compare these ratios to industry peers 👥.
| Return on Equity (ROE TTM) | 7.40% |
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 3.87% |
| Debt/Equity (MRQ) | 37.32x |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $4.06 B |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $7.88 B |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 2.52x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 1.39x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $3.88 B |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $194.28 M |
Dividend & Shareholder Returns
For income-oriented value investors, analyzing shareholder returns is crucial. Shareholders receive a dividend yielding 189.00% (equivalent to N/A per year). With a Payout Ratio of 38.45%, its coverage appears moderate. Last key date (Ex-Dividend Date): 2025-03-31. We assess the yield’s attractiveness relative to risk, the safety implied by the Payout Ratio (38.45%), and the history of dividend growth (data not shown here, requires further research 📜). Focus seems to be primarily on dividends (if any) rather than buybacks. Total shareholder yield (Dividend Yield + Buyback Yield) provides a complete picture of capital return.
| Dividend Rate (Fwd) | $2.20 |
| Dividend Yield (Fwd) | 189.00x |
| Trailing Dividend Rate | $2.18 |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 1.89x |
| 5 Year Avg Dividend Yield | 1.80x |
| Payout Ratio | 38.45x |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-03-31 |
| Last Split Date | 2006-06-01 |
| Last Split Factor | 2:1 |
Value Investing Metrics
Fundamental valuation analysis is central to our process. We scrutinize P/E ratios (Trailing: 20.49x – in a typical range; Forward: 12.41x – relatively low (potentially undervalued or low growth expectations)), Price/Book (1.34x), and Price/Sales (0.88x). The Price/Free Cash Flow (P/FCF: 137.96x) 💵 is particularly vital, assessing value based on actual cash generation available to investors. For meaningful assessment, these valuation metrics need comparison with NUE’s historical data 📜 and relevant industry peers 👥. A significant discount to historical/peer averages might indicate a value opportunity, provided fundamentals are sound (see Financial Health).
| Trailing P/E | 20.49x |
| Forward P/E | 12.41x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | $0.88 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | $1.34 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 1.04x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 8.96x |
| Price/FCF (TTM) | $137.96 |
Profitability & Margin Stability
Consistent profitability and sustainable growth are cornerstones of long-term investment quality. We analyze Gross (10.52%), Operating (4.14%), and Net Margins (4.40%) for efficiency and competitive positioning. Growth trends are indicated by YoY Revenue (-3.80%) and Earnings (-80.60%) increases. Demonstrating resilient margins and the ability to grow earnings consistently, especially compared to peers 👥, strengthens the investment case.
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 4.40% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 4.14% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 10.52% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 11.61% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $30.43 B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | -3.80% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $3.20 B |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $3.53 B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $1.33 B |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -80.60% |
Market Perception Check
While analyst opinions are considered, they supplement rather than replace independent fundamental research. The current consensus is ‘Buy’ (12 analysts), with a mean target of $146.74 (Range: $120.00 – $175.00). Based on the mean target ($146.74), this implies a potential upside of ~27.1% from the current price ($115.46). Value investors should critically assess if the market price and analyst targets align with their own calculated intrinsic value and margin of safety requirements. Suggest reviewing analyst rationale if possible.
Conclusion & Outlook
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- ●Price Trend vs MAs: mixed (above SMA50, below SMA200)
- ●Overall Technical Sentiment: Neutral
- ●Momentum (RSI): Neutral (40.0)
- 📊Support / Resistance (30d): ~$105.92 / ~$123.95
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- ●Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (ROE: 7.40%, D/E: 37.32x)
- ➕Valuation Snapshot: Potentially Attractive (Fwd P/E: 12.41x), P/FCF: 137.96x 💵
- 💸Dividend: 189.00% Yield (Payout: 38.45%)
- ➖Recent Growth (YoY): Negative (Rev: -3.80%, Earn: -80.60%)
- ▲1-Year Avg. Forecast: ~+22.2% avg. change to ≈$141.11
- ▲Analyst Consensus: Buy (Target: $146.74)
Overall Assessment & Outlook
Assessing the underlying business value, NUE exhibits a a moderate financial health profile (Assessment Incomplete (ROE: 7.40%, D/E: 37.32x)) and a valuation currently assessed as Potentially Attractive (Fwd P/E: 12.41x), P/FCF: 137.96x 💵. The dividend yield is currently 189.00% Yield (Payout: 38.45%). current growth stands at Negative (Rev: -3.80%, Earn: -80.60%). Balancing the current technical stance against the fundamental prospects, the Neutral technicals offer context on current market perception. Building a long-term position requires confidence in the company’s fundamentals, its market position, and buying at a price that provides sufficient margin for error. Careful consideration of these points relative to the inherent market risks and their long-term investment strategy.
Important: This analysis synthesizes model outputs and publicly available data for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Always conduct thorough independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Risk Factors
Understanding the risks associated with NUE is crucial. Below are potential risks derived from analysis and market awareness; this overview is not fully comprehensive.
- ⚠️ Broad market volatility affects all stocks, including this one.
- ⚠️ Headwinds within the Steel/Basic Materials space could negatively impact the company.
- ⚠️ Macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rate changes present potential risks.
- ⚠️ Specific news or developments related to the company could affect its stock.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the NUE stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?
Based on current models, the average 1-year price forecast for NUE is ≈$141.11. This represents a potential +22.2% change from the recent price of $115.46. Remember, this is a model-driven estimate, not a guarantee, and actual prices will fluctuate based on numerous factors.
Will NUE stock go up or down?
The 1-year forecast model suggests the price might show strong gains on average (+22.2% potential). However, short-term direction is highly uncertain and heavily influenced by prevailing market sentiment (currently ‘Neutral’), breaking news, and overall economic conditions. Technical indicators (see TA Summary) provide clues for near-term direction.
Is NUE stock a good investment right now?
From a value perspective, ‘good buy’ means acquiring NUE at a price offering a margin of safety relative to its intrinsic value. Assess the fundamental health (e.g., Debt/Equity: 37.32x), profitability, and valuation (12.41x Fwd P/E). Does the current price ($115.46) adequately compensate for the risks involved? Remember that general market risks are always present. The forecast (+22.2% potential) is one input, but long-term fundamentals are key. Remember, this analysis is for information only; seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
How volatile is NUE stock?
NUE’s recent price swing intensity (annualized 30-day volatility) is measured at ≈27.4%. This is currently viewed as average. This aligns with its Beta of 1.75x (see Stock Price Statistics). Greater volatility implies wider potential price movements.
What is NUE’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?
The Trailing P/E for NUE (using historical earnings) stands at 20.49x (average). Looking forward, the P/E based on estimates is 12.41x. P/E reflects the price paid for each dollar of profit. Contextualize using industry averages and historical data. High P/Es need strong growth to be sustainable (see PEG).