TWLO Stock Analysis Report for Bernini Capital
Introduction & Overview
We turn our attention to Twilio Inc. (TWLO), situated in the Software – Infrastructure industry within the Technology sector. The latest price recorded on 2025-05-15 stands at $114.23, reflecting a robust technical setup, holding above primary moving averages. Trading above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs is typically viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. Its market capitalization stands near $17.76 B, TWLO represents a significant player in its field.
This Bernini Capital assessment provides a comprehensive evaluation of Twilio Inc. (TWLO) from a long-term, value-oriented perspective. We meticulously analyze its fundamental strength, including financial health (debt, liquidity), profitability trends (margins, ROE), cash flow generation (see Financial Health/Efficiency), and valuation attractiveness relative to peers and intrinsic estimates. Dividend sustainability (see Dividends section) is also a key consideration.
Company Snapshot
Its business model centers around: Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Twilio Communications and Twilio Segment. The company provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, flex, marketing c…
Key Metrics Summary
These summary metrics help frame TWLO’s present market valuation. The relationship between price ($114.23) and its key SMAs (50-day: $94.83 – Above SMA 50; 200-day: $107.34 – Above SMA 200) provides basic trend information. Volatility is 35.4%. Although the 1-year forecast targets $143.56, enduring investment choices depend more significantly on core fundamentals (like financial stability and earnings power) and if the price represents good value compared to its estimated worth.
Fundamental Business Profile
Core Operations & Competitive Landscape
Assessing the company’s role within its industry, its operational scale, and its long-term strategy provides a foundation for fundamental valuation. Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Twilio Communications and Twilio Segment. The company provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, flex, marketing campaigns, and user authentication and identity. It also offers software products to build direct and personalized relationships with their end users, such as segment, a platform that provides tools to harness the power of contextual data by unifying real-time information collected comprising connections, protocols, unify, engages, and AI capabilities components. Twilio Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California
Financial Health Assessment
Assessing financial resilience is paramount for long-term investment. We focus on sustainable profitability (ROE: -0.39%), prudent capital structure (Debt/Equity: 13.75x), and robust liquidity (Current Ratio: 4.78x, Quick Ratio: 4.17x). Consistent positive Operating Cash Flow ($717.16 M) is a non-negotiable sign of a healthy business capable of weathering cycles and returning value. Compare these ratios to industry peers 👥.
| Return on Equity (ROE TTM) | -0.39% |
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 0.15% |
| Debt/Equity (MRQ) | 13.75x |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $2.45 B |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $1.10 B |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 4.78x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 4.17x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $717.16 M |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $698.69 M |
Dividend & Shareholder Returns
For income-oriented value investors, analyzing shareholder returns is crucial. TWLO does not currently pay a significant regular dividend or data is unavailable. We assess the yield’s attractiveness relative to risk, the safety implied by the Payout Ratio (0.00%), and the history of dividend growth (data not shown here, requires further research 📜). Share buybacks do not appear to be a major component of current capital returns. Total shareholder yield (Dividend Yield + Buyback Yield) provides a complete picture of capital return.
| Trailing Dividend Rate | $0.00 |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 0.00x |
| Payout Ratio | 0.00x |
Value Investing Metrics
Our value investing approach prioritizes valuation. Key metrics include P/E (Past: N/A, is unavailable; Future Est: 27.57x, above average (reflecting positive outlook)), P/B (2.23x), and P/S (3.88x). We emphasize Price/Free Cash Flow (25.42x) 💵 as it reflects true cash earnings power. Comparing these multiples to TWLO’s past levels 📜 and industry competitors 👥 is essential for proper valuation context. A notable discount relative to benchmarks could signal value, assuming solid fundamentals (refer to Financial Health).
| Forward P/E | 27.57x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | $3.88 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | $2.23 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 3.58x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 71.88x |
| Price/FCF (TTM) | $25.42 |
Profitability & Margin Stability
For value investors, reliable profit generation and growth are essential. We examine margins (Gross: 50.55%, Op: 1.97%, Net: -0.74%) for operational strength. The company’s recent growth trajectory shows Revenue up 12.00% and Earnings up N/A YoY. Steady margins and consistent earnings growth, particularly versus competitors 👥, support a positive long-term view.
| Profit Margin (TTM) | -0.74% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 1.97% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 50.55% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 4.98% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.58 B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 12.00% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $2.32 B |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $228.38 M |
| Net Income (TTM) | $-34.04 M |
Market Perception Check
Analyst views provide context but don’t substitute for independent analysis. The Street’s consensus is ‘Buy’ (28 analysts), targeting $129.52 on average (Range: $75.00 – $170.00). Relative to the current price ($114.23), the mean analyst target ($129.52) points to approximately 13.4% upside. Value investors must compare these targets against their own intrinsic value estimates and required safety margin. Understanding the analysts’ reasoning is beneficial.
Conclusion & Outlook
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- ▲Price Trend vs MAs: bullish (above SMA50/200)
- ▲Overall Technical Sentiment: Bullish
- ⚠️Momentum (RSI): Overbought (88.4)
- 📊Support / Resistance (30d): ~$80.90 / ~$115.67
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- ●Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (ROE: -0.39%, D/E: 13.75x)
- ●Valuation Snapshot: Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: 27.57x), P/FCF: 25.42x 💵
- ●Recent Growth (YoY): N/A (Rev: 12.00%, Earn: N/A)
- ▲1-Year Avg. Forecast: ~+25.7% avg. change to ≈$143.56
- ▲Analyst Consensus: Buy (Target: $129.52)
Overall Assessment & Outlook
From a fundamental value perspective, TWLO exhibits a a moderate financial health profile (Assessment Incomplete (ROE: -0.39%, D/E: 13.75x)) and a valuation currently assessed as Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: 27.57x), P/FCF: 25.42x 💵. The company does not offer a significant dividend. recent growth stands at N/A (Rev: 12.00%, Earn: N/A). Balancing the current technical stance against the fundamental prospects, the Bullish technicals offer context on current market perception. The long-term investment case rests on the sustainability of its fundamentals, competitive advantages, and whether the current price offers an adequate margin of safety relative to intrinsic value. Careful consideration of these points relative to the inherent market risks and their long-term investment strategy.
Important: This analysis synthesizes model outputs and publicly available data for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Always conduct thorough independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Risk Factors
Investing in TWLO involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.
- ⚠️ General market downturns pose a risk to the share price.
- ⚠️ Headwinds within the Software – Infrastructure/Technology space could negatively impact the company.
- ⚠️ Changes in macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation) pose risks.
- ⚠️ Unforeseen company events or news can impact the price.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the TWLO stock price prediction for the next year (2025-2026)?
Our models currently project an average 1-year target price of ≈$143.56 for TWLO, suggesting a potential +25.7% move from $114.23. Keep in mind that forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change.
Will TWLO stock go up or down?
While the long-term model anticipates the price could show strong gains (+25.7% potential), the immediate path is less clear. Market sentiment (‘Bullish’), news events, and economic shifts play a major role. Check the Technical Analysis section for short-term signals.
Is TWLO stock a good investment right now?
From a value perspective, ‘good buy’ means acquiring TWLO at a price offering a margin of safety relative to its intrinsic value. Assess the fundamental health (e.g., Debt/Equity: 13.75x), profitability, and valuation (27.57x Fwd P/E). Does the current price ($114.23) adequately compensate for the risks involved? Standard market and sector risks always apply. The forecast (+25.7% potential) is one input, but long-term fundamentals are key. Remember, this analysis is for information only; seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
How volatile is TWLO stock?
TWLO’s recent price swing intensity (annualized 30-day volatility) is measured at ≈35.4%. This is currently viewed as moderate. Its Beta (1.44x) reflects a similar level of market correlation. Greater volatility implies wider potential price movements.
What is TWLO’s P/E ratio and what does it mean?
The Trailing P/E for TWLO (using historical earnings) stands at N/A (unavailable). Looking forward, the P/E based on estimates is 27.57x. P/E reflects the price paid for each dollar of profit. Contextualize using industry averages and historical data. High P/Es need strong growth to be sustainable (see PEG).